A week after the felony convictions of Donald Trump by a jury of his peers in New York, polling numbers are beginning to come in that may highlight the potential impact of this ruling on Trumps political chances. While these numbers may seem small and inconsequential, in a race that is as close this one any movement in one direction or another may make a significant difference in November. These polls are also months in advance with a salient issue that significantly effects the short term poll numbers. The numbers will change as the campaign goes on, but its worth examining how America feels in this monumental moment in American history.
Before the conviction on May 30th, National Polls average Trump above Biden at +.8 from May 1st-15th, a week where the conviction was still up in the air and not necessarily in the public consciousness. After the conviction on June 1st-6th, the national polls average Trump above Biden at +1.4. While these numbers on the surface are very clearly swinging upwards, we must keep in mind that the true effect of the conviction may not be felt yet and that the increased number of Trump respondents may be in reaction to the conviction, making supporters more open to expressing support for their candidate.
Where to Focus
States such as Wisconsin, Georgia and Michigan are highly competitive are is where we should focus most of our analysis, and currently all of them lean towards Trump in varying degrees. Georgia has the widest margin of difference at +5.3 as of today, but this is down from +6.2 at the highest point of May 1st-15th. Michigan in May is neck and neck at +1.4 for Trump at its highest point while slowly declining to +.7, very winnable numbers for the Biden or Trump campaign. Wisconsin is very similar to Michigan with its polling numbers, with Trump up about 2 points from May 1st-15th, but declines over the month to be currently sitting at +.9 for Trump. These three states alone show that there is a slight decline in support for Trump in the month of May as the trial was underway, but these numbers are still well within margins or error except for Georgia currently.
Who these polled voters are is key to constructing a future strategy leveraging these numbers. Data for Progress identifies swing voters across the nation as younger than the average voter, they tend to be female, are generally more racially diverse and don’t possess a college degree. They also tend to be less “plugged in” to the political news cycle if they know any news at all. Swing voters believe themselves to be more moderate than the general population, though tend to favor liberal economic and social positions such as tax hikes on the wealth and business owners in order to pay for better social services and embrace non-traditional values.
As with all Americans, the top issues swing voters care about is the economy, jobs and inflation are their top issues and make the most impact on who they decide to vote for. The major highlight of this electorate is the “double haters” who are not very enthusiastic about this election. These voters don’t like either candidate and tend to either vote for the lesser of two evils or may decide to not vote at all. Encouraging these unenthusiastic voters to vote may be the deciding factor in this election.
In Wisconsin, for example, in a three way between Biden, Trump and Kennedy (note Kennedy is not currently on the Wisconsin ballot for 2024) has Biden up 40.5% to Trumps 37.4% and Kennedys 10.4%. In the two way, however, we see that Biden and Trump are neck and neck at 45.7% and 44.4%. While its unclear how the distribution changes with Kennedy being off ballot in terms of demographics, its worth considering the Kennedy vote to be the “double haters” and are expressing that in this protest vote. Persuading these voters is key to winning Wisconsin and any swing states with close margins.
Strategy
So how do we take these undecided or double hater votes and shift them either towards Biden or just away from Trump? Law and order is a major platform that the Republican party dominates, and the optics of running a convicted felon as your nominee may be a turn off for the undecided voters. An ad from Republicans Against Trump highlights the gravity of these charges by showing that Trump wouldn’t be trustworthy getting a job at a local mall, much less the United States President. I believe that this angle is incredibly effective at persuading the undecided voters away from Trump by taking a platform that Republicans preform well on and turning it against them. This will not dislodge the MAGA base, but those on the fringes may be persuaded to being undecided or maybe migrate towards Biden.
The economy is another major issue for the swing voters, and most people may not know his record on job growth and inflation reduction. By appropriating funds to clean energy producers and technology research, this reduces the price the average American pays on their energy bills. Comparing this record to Trump, who in his term in office lost 2.9 million jobs, made massive tax cuts for the rich, along with housing prices increasing by 27.5% from the beginning of his presidency. Note that these figures also are effected by the COVID-19 shutdown and its consequences, but this large number of lost jobs and skyrocketing housing prices can be a major talking point for young undecided or double hater voters to shift their vote choice away from Trump.
At the core of the strategy, its taking the issues that swing voters care about the most (jobs, economy and inflation) and contrasting both of the candidates records to one another. People still believe that the economy was better under Trump due to the COVID-19 pandemic making gas significantly cheaper because no one was driving. When you actually examine the records of the two candidates, one is going to continue fighting for the American people and the other is going to fight for the rich and their own personal needs.
This conviction will make clear to the undecided voters that Trump is running only for himself. In any other campaign, being found guilty of a single felony would be the deathblow to your presidential chances except for Trump. He believes he is on another level of political existence, that the consequences of his actions won’t matter after November. Its up to the American people to decide whether or not Trump deserves to suffer the consequences of his actions before, during and after his presidency. And only through convincing these undecided voters that Trump will be worse than before will we make this a reality.