(Note: This was written as an assignment for Comparative Politics on April 23rd, 2023)

As the war in Ukraine rages on, the democratic process must continue on with the next election of parliament. Currently controlled by a majority party, the Servant of the People, they face an election of multiple competing parties with a major dissatisfaction with Russian political parties due to the invasion. With the current political climate, what are the possible outcomes of a parliament election during an active war? 

The first thing that must be done is to understand Ukraine’s parliamentary voting system, which shares some similarities with American congressional voting. Ukraine has a closed list proportional voting system and a first-past-the-post voting system working together to elect the whole parliament. The country is broken down into districts and the constituents of those districts vote on both a party list, where they choose a party rather than voting for a specific candidate. After those votes are counted, the election commission would tally the votes and award seats based on how many people voted for that party. For example, if Kyiv and its districts tallied up 10% of votes for Party A, 30% for Party B and 60% for Party C, and there were 10 seats up for reelection, then Party A gets 1 seat, Party B gets 3 and Party C gets 6. This system elects half of the seats in parliament, and the first-past-the-post system elects the other half. This system is similar to how America picks its leaders, and is simple. COnstituents are provided a list of names and parties they are associated with, and they vote for their preference. The first person to reach a specific threshold, normally 50%+1, that person is elected into that seat. Both of these electoral systems working together helps provide representation for both smaller parties due to the proportional selection process, along with representation of the people’s voice with direct voting for specific people. 

Along with the presentation of their voting systems, we must also examine the parties that are partaking in the next election. There are 6 parties currently serving in the Ukrainian parliament; The Servant of the People, Batkivshchyna, European Solidarity, Holos, For the Future and Dovira. The Servant of the People is the largest party and holds a majority in the current parliament. They are a centrist party who focuses on Pro-European sentiment, and was named after a show that current president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had acted in. The party focuses on democratization and pursuing a relationship with the European Union, with their party slogan stating “our goal is to bring Ukraine on the path of development and progress. Gradual, but relentless. Ambitious, but balanced” (“Ідеологія Партії.” Політична Партія “Слуга Народу”). As of the 2019 presidential election, the party under the leadership of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, received 30% of the votes in the first round and received 73% of the vote overall, with Batkivshchyna following in second place with 27% (“Live Updates: 97% of Ballots Counted; Zelenskiy Heads to Landslide Victory as Poroshenko Concedes.” KyivPost). Other minor parties include pro-Russian parties such as Nashi or the Opposition Platform – For Life, which had support in the currently occupied Donbas and Luhansk oblasts and parties of regional or local interest such as Successful Kharkiv or the All-Ukrainian Union. All of these parties, in time of a divided parliament, may make coalitions with one another in order to secure a majority with strange makeups. The first Azarov government included the Party of Regions, a pro-Russian political party, the centrist Lytvyn Bloc and the Communist Party of Ukraine during its rule from March 2010 to December 2012.

With some background on the political parties in play and how the government is structured, what can be the outcome of an election during an invasion with a country they have historic ties to? As of March 2022, president Zelenskyy has announced a ban on political parties with connections to Russian, including the Nashi and For Life parties previously discussed. Because of this ban, it restricts the ability for the Russian government to influence the people of Ukraine, along with the fact that the Donbas and Luhansk territories who had a large Russian sympathetic population have been annexed by Russia. The loss of this Russian sympathizing population harms the influence of the Russian government on Ukrainian politics, however the ban on these political parties holds a realist sentiment and is in the best interest of the nation. The restricted parties would be a threat for national security because those parties are easily influenced by Russian interests and a seat in government for those parties essentially gives away a portion of Ukrainian sovereignty. However, this ban could be harmful for the legitimacy of the government in those regions and other Russian sympathizing populations due to their party being suppressed. The loss of these Russian sympathizing populations is negligible in this circumstance, as most of the areas that would be voting for a pro-Russian government have been annexed and are legally in Russia, so the threat of a pro-Russian government is very slim but still requires a realistic perspective. Another angle that can be analyzed is how the vote will lean and a prediction for the next election. During the 2019 presidential election, President Zelenskyy had stated that he would only run for a single term, and in 2021 he made another statement about running for a second term depending on how the public views him. If we assume that Zelenskyy will run for a second term, he would most likely win a second term. According to polling company InfoSapiens as of March 28th, 52% of all citizens who could vote stated that they would vote Zelensky party “Sluha Narodu” (Info Sapiens, 2022). This means that there is a firm voter base willing to continue supporting him and shows a strong antagonistic attitude toward more authoritarian governments. 

A war can produce many externalities that can shift the focus of the political climate within a country, and we can already see the shift in attitude that the former USSR state is currently dealing with. The country is slowly becoming more western while also keeping its history intact. As more details come out about the inner workings of the war, a political shift may occur and change the landscape. However, with the firm opposition to the Russian invasion, it is hard to see them shifting closer to Russia.